Abstract. What would happen to the Netherlands if, in 2030, the sea level starts to rise and eventually, after 100 years, leads to a sea level of five meters above current level? Two scenarios are developed from literature and primary research through eliciting opinions of professionals in the domains of social sciences, economics, civil engineering, and land use planning. One scenario describes what would happen in a future characterised by a trend towards further globalisation, marketisation and high economic growth, while the other scenario happens in a future under opposite trends. Both scenarios indicate that the Southwest and Northwest of the Netherlands would be abandoned after the sea level rise. Although most experts believe it is geo-morphologically and engineering-wise possible to largely maintain the territorial integrity of the Netherlands, there are some reasons to think that such is not likely to happen. The costs of such works would be enormous, annually a few percents of GDP. For some parts of the Netherlands, these costs would greatly exceed the avoided (local) damage costs. Decision making, therefore, would have major political implications, and would come late since social processes – e.g. the belief in the reality of SLR, the framing of such decision in a proper political context (policy window) - that precede important political decisions occur slowly. Although, the chance event of a flood disaster would speed up such processes, the general expectation is that decisions would come to late vis-à-vis the rate of SLR and the possible rate of construction of works.
1. INTRODUCTION
A possible effect of the ongoing change in the climate system would be the disintegration of the West-Atlantic Ice Sheet. Such event would lead to a 5m to 6m sea level rise (SLR). Although chances are small, the consequences are enormous. Obviously, communities in low elevation coastal areas would be threatened. However, what more is there to say about this risk? What could actually happen under such 5 m SLR? This question – the topic of the present paper – is relevant, for instance when considering policies to avoid and adapt to climate change.We present the description of the risk in terms of scenarios, narratives about what could happen under certain exogenous developments (i.e. under a scenario of SLR). We do not discuss the probability of the 5m SLR itself. The assumption is that the SLR will start in 2030 and occur in period of 100 years. The subject matter under influence of SLR is nothing less than “the Netherlands as a whole”. As the endpoints of this concept (i.e. the dependent variables), we have in mind items such as the geography of the Netherlands (about half of the Netherlands is at risk, without any adaptation of the current flood defence system), the flood defence system and associated institutions, the demography and the economy of the Netherlands.
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